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目的预测山西某煤矿研究队列内接尘工人未来预期寿命内煤工尘肺的发病人数,确定发病危险人群。方法将该煤矿1970—2011年开始接尘的4 771人作为研究对象,采用寿命表方法,分析不同开始接尘年代队列、不同工种队列的累计发病率及年平均发病率,预测健康接尘工人未来预期寿命内煤工尘肺发病人数。结果预测未来预期寿命内约有497人发病,其中1970~年代开始接尘工人约32人发病,1980~年代开始接尘工人约465人发病,1980~年代开始接尘工人发病率最高(11.17%);各工种发病人数由高到低分别为掘进工约245人,采煤工178人,混合工64人,辅助工10人,掘进工发病率最高(75.85%);发病人员主要集中在目前40~50岁人群,约324人发病;未来30年内约有416人发病,占总发病人数的83.70%。结论掘进工及1980年以后开始接尘的工人为尘肺高发人群,属于重点保护对象。
Objective To predict the incidence of coal worker’s pneumoconiosis in the future life expectancy of dust-pick workers in a coal mine research team in Shanxi and determine the risk-causing population. Methods A total of 4771 people who started to catch dust from 1970 to 2011 in the coal mine were used as research objects. The life table method was used to analyze the cumulative incidence and annual average incidence of cohorts and cohorts in different dust-collecting years. The number of coal worker’s pneumoconiosis in the future life expectancy. Results Predicted about 497 people were expected to have life expectancy in the future. Among them, about 32 workers who started to work on dust in the 1970s and 1980s, about 465 workers who started to work on dust in the 1980s and the highest incidence of dust-exposed workers in the 1980s (11.17% ); The number of each type of work from high to low were about 920 excavators, coal mining 178, 64 mixed workers, auxiliary workers 10, the highest incidence of road workers (75.85%); the incidence of the main focus at present About 40 to 50-year-olds, about 324 people; the next 30 years about 416 people, accounting for 83.70% of the total number of patients. Conclusions The diggers and the workers who started to dust after 1980 are the workers with high incidence of pneumoconiosis, which are the key protection targets.