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以投资性商品的价格运行系统为研究对象,引入反映投资者心理预期的变量,对传统的蛛网模型加以改进,并据此构建非均衡市场环境下投资性商品价格运行开环系统模型,对非均衡市场环境下投资性商品市场价格运行的稳定性进行识别,在此基础上对反馈控制机制进行设计.以我国的住宅市场的价格运行系统为实证研究对象,结合历史数据对所构模型的有效性进行验证,并对未来可能出现情况进行预测.实证研究主要结论如下:第一,我国住宅市场投资者对预期收益的敏感程度以及供应商对商品前期价格的敏感程度均较高,价格运行能自发实现稳定的区域较小;第二,现有调控政策不变的情况下,我国住宅市场价格正向偏离稳定区域的程度将减小;第三,若政府从影响投资者心理预期的角度入手对我国住宅市场价格波动进行干预,希望我国住宅市场的价格运行能以最快的速度趋于稳态,则设计反馈控制机制时,应重视投资者对商品价格未来的心理预期受商品历史价格的影响程度远高于受市场供需的影响程度这一现象.
This paper takes the price operation system of investment goods as the research object, introduces the variables that reflect the investors' psychological expectation, improves the traditional cobweb model, and constructs the open-loop system model of investment goods running in the non-equilibrium market environment, Based on this, the feedback control mechanism is designed.With the price operation system of China's residential market as the empirical research object, combined with the historical data to validate the proposed model, the stability of the investment goods market under the balanced market environment is identified. The main conclusions of the empirical research are as follows: First, the sensitivity of investors in China's residential market to the expected return and the sensitivity of suppliers to the price of the commodity in the early stage are both high, and the price operation energy Secondly, under the condition of the same regulation and control policy, the price of housing in our country will deviate positively from the stable area. Thirdly, if the government starts from the perspective of influencing investors' psychological expectation China's housing market price volatility intervention, I hope the price of China's residential market can be the fastest When degrees tend to steady state, the feedback control mechanism is designed, investors should pay attention to the psychological expectations of future commodity prices affected by the impact of commodity prices well above historical phenomenon affected by the impact of market supply and demand.