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本文全面分析了2008年以来经济危机对所有转型国家所产生的不同影响,分析所使用的可验证框架将1989年以来转型国家的脆弱性与各种特定的发展模式联系起来。该框架的关键在于确认与国际经济实现一体化的各种形式,这些形式在不同出口结构与对其他外汇收入的依赖之间存在区别。这些导致危机传播的渠道在国家之间存在差异。本分析利用了一种三层次的研究方案,将变量导向型的回归分析与案例导向型的类似案例之间的比较研究、单个国家的案例内分析结合起来。
This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the differential impact of the economic crisis on all countries in transition since 2008 and the verifiability framework used in the analysis to link the vulnerability of countries in transition to the specific patterns of development since 1989. The key to this framework is to identify the various forms of integration with the international economy that differentiate between different export structures and reliance on other foreign exchange earnings. The channels that lead to the spread of crises vary from one country to another. This analysis takes advantage of a three-tiered research program that combines a variable-oriented regression analysis with a case-based case study and a case-by-case analysis of individual countries.