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文章分析了我国货币供给与需求的均衡与非均衡问题。根据偏调整模型建立货币供给与货币需求之间的均衡关系,通过对货币供给相关因素的分析,间接求出我国货币需求函数。在此基础上,运用季节性误差修正模型(SECM)求出我国货币市场非均衡的动态调整速度,以此检验我国经济力量对货币市场失衡的自我纠正能力。结果显示,经过二十多年的发展,我国的市场化改革取得了显著成就,货币市场非均衡的自我纠正能力显著提高。但是,由于在不同的季节性模式下,货币市场非均衡的自我纠正能力有显著差异,所以,央行在制定货币政策时需要区别对待。
The paper analyzes the equilibrium and non-equilibrium of China’s money supply and demand. According to the partial adjustment model, the equilibrium relationship between money supply and money demand is established. By analyzing the related factors of money supply, the demand function of money in our country is obtained indirectly. On this basis, we use the seasonal error correction model (SECM) to find out the dynamic adjustment speed of the unbalanced money market in our country and test the self-correcting ability of our country’s economic forces to the unbalance of money market. The results show that after more than two decades of development, China’s marketization reform has made remarkable achievements, and the unbalanced self-correcting ability in the money market has risen markedly. However, since there are significant differences in the unbalanced self-correcting ability of money markets under different seasonal patterns, the central bank needs to make a difference when formulating monetary policy.