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伴随着世界经济复苏乏力,世界贸易增长放缓。国际货币基金组织(IMF)预测2012和2013年世界经济将出现缓慢复苏的态势,世界贸易增长前景不容乐观,一些发达经济体的贸易将受到较大的冲击。同时,各国的失业率居高不下和国内产业的压力,导致贸易保护主义情绪升温,贸易冲突加剧。2012年全球贸易增速大幅放缓(一)伴随着全球经济下滑,贸易也呈现回落的态势世界经济增长与世界贸易发展存在长期稳定的正相关,而且通常贸易的波动要强于经济变化,因此,世界经济波动尤其是发达国家的经济增长,对世界贸易有显著的影响(见图1)。
With the sluggish economic recovery in the world, the growth of world trade slowed down. The International Monetary Fund predicts a slow recovery in the world economy in 2012 and 2013. The outlook for world trade growth is not optimistic and the trade in some advanced economies will be greatly affected. In the meantime, the high unemployment rate in various countries and the pressure from domestic industries have led to a rise in the trade protectionist sentiment and the intensification of trade conflicts. Global trade growth slowed sharply in 2012 (a) Trade has also shown a downward trend along with the global economic downturn World economic growth has long-term and stable positive correlation with the development of world trade, and trade usually fluctuates more strongly than economic change. Therefore, The volatility of the world economy, especially that of the developed countries, has a significant impact on world trade (see Figure 1).