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细菌性痢疾(以下简称菌痢)是我市重点防治的传染病,历年来其发病率一直位居法定报告传染病的一、二位.进入80年代以来,由于人民生活水平提高,加上各项防治措施的落实,菌痢的发病率呈下降趋势,尤其是1988年以来下降幅度较大.本文试用指数曲线模型拟合其发病率,效果较好.1 资料来源与拟合方法1.1 资料来源 本文分析的起止年限为1988～1995年.历年发病数为年终订正核实上报数,人口数来源于市统计局公布的人口资料,年度发病率Y(/10万)见表.1.2 拟合方法以年度缩减值为x,发病率为y,
Bacterial dysentery (hereinafter referred to as bacillary dysentery) is the epidemic of the city’s key prevention and control. Its incidence rate has ranked one or two of the statutory infectious diseases for years. Since the 1980s, due to the improvement of people’s living standards, plus The implementation of the prevention and control measures, the incidence of bacillary dysentery showed a downward trend, especially since 1988. This article trials the exponential curve model to fit the incidence rate, the effect is good.1 Source and fitting method 1.1 Source The starting and ending time of analysis in this paper is from 1988 to 1995. The number of incidents over the years is the year-end revision and verification and reporting. The population is derived from the demographic data released by the Municipal Bureau of Statistics. The annual incidence rate Y (1/100,000) is shown in Table 1.2. The annual reduction value is x and the incidence rate is y.