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耕地和经济发展之间的关系一直是学术界研究的热点。本文以湖北省为例,运用协整检验和协调度模型对1975-2007年样本区间内耕地数量与经济发展的关系进行实证性研究。结果表明:1.湖北省耕地数量和经济发展序列属于非平稳序列,且二者存在长期稳定的均衡关系。2.湖北省经济发展是耕地数量变化的Granger原因,而耕地数量变化并不是经济发展的Granger原因。同时,湖北省经济发展对耕地数量变化的解释力达到14.11%,而耕地数量变化对经济发展的解释力偏低,平均只有2.16%。3.湖北省近30年来耕地数量和经济发展的协调度年变化不大,处于一个由调和向基本协调转变的状态,呈现出良性发展趋势。
The relationship between cultivated land and economic development has always been the focus of academic research. Taking Hubei Province as an example, this paper uses cointegration test and coordination degree model to make an empirical study on the relationship between cultivated land quantity and economic development in the sample interval from 1975 to 2007. The results show that: 1. The number of cultivated land and economic development in Hubei Province belong to the non-stationary series, and the long-term and stable equilibrium exists between them. 2. The economic development in Hubei Province is the Granger cause of the change in the quantity of cultivated land. However, the change in cultivated land quantity is not the Granger cause of economic development. At the same time, the explanatory power of Hubei’s economic development on the change of cultivated land quantity reached 14.11%, while the explanation of the change of cultivated land quantity on economic development was low, with an average of only 2.16%. 3. The coordination between cultivated land quantity and economic development in Hubei Province has not changed much in the recent 30 years and is in a state of transition from reconciliation to basic coordination, showing a benign trend of development.