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利用农业统计资料和全国农产品成本调查数据,分析了1998～2006年间我国双季稻区水稻播种面积的变化趋势、产量损失和驱动因子。揭示出:①1998～2006年间,我国双季稻区至少有174.4×104hm2的双季稻改为单季稻;②由此造成的我国水稻播种面积减少13%,水稻总产量减少5.4%,粮食总产量减少2%。经济发达省份“双改单”现象和产量损失尤为严重;③我国双季稻区水稻“双改单”现象主要可归因于近期农民工工资上涨导致的农村劳动力短缺和双季稻收益较低两方面因素。因此,政府的粮补应细化和具体化,适当提高早稻和双季晚稻的收购价格,并积极做好科技推广工作。
Based on the survey data of agricultural statistics and the national agricultural product cost, the change trend, yield loss and driving factors of rice sowing area in double cropping rice in China from 1998 to 2006 were analyzed. Revealed: ① Between 1998 and 2006, at least 174.4 × 104hm2 double cropping rice was changed to single cropping rice in the double cropping rice area in China; ② The resulting reduction in sown area of rice in our country was 13%, total rice output decreased by 5.4% and total grain output was reduced 2%. Especially in the economically developed provinces. The phenomenon of “dual change to single” in the double cropping rice in our country is mainly attributable to the shortage of rural labor force and the double crop caused by the recent increase in the wage of migrant workers Rice yields lower two factors. Therefore, the government should refine and specify the food supplement, properly increase the purchase price of early rice and double-season late rice, and actively promote the promotion of science and technology.