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本文采用指数函数模型．对山东省三地区的患病人数按年度序列进行拟合，并对1996－2000年三地区的患病人数进行了预测。预测结果示：1996－2000年山东省三地区的麻风患病人数将呈持续性稳定下降。2000年三地区患病人数将减至64人，潍坊地区为25人，临沂地区为31人，济宁地区11人，最后文章阐述了运用指数函数模型进行传染病流行预测的条件，认为该法是一种简便易行的预测方法。
In this paper, exponential function model. The annual prevalence of the number of illnesses in the three districts of Shandong Province was fitted and the number of patients in the three districts of 1996-2000 was predicted. The forecast results show that the number of leprosy patients in the three areas of Shandong Province in 1996-2000 will show a steady and steady decline. In 2000, the number of illnesses in the three regions will be reduced to 64; Weifang is 25; Linyi is 31; Jining is 11; and the last article expounds the conditions for using exponential function model to predict the epidemic of infectious diseases. A simple and easy way to predict.