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研究与开发(Research and Development,R&D)投资、传统贴现现金流量(DiscountedCash Flow,DCF)方法忽略了项目自身管理弹性的价值;实物期权虽能较好地捕捉管理弹性的价值,却未能有效解决高度不确定环境下参变量的波动性问题;蒙特卡罗模拟能解决参变量的波动性问题,但需要复杂的计算机程序来解决算法问题.作者在分析实物期权的基础上,运用蒙特卡罗理论,使用水晶球软件来进行R&D决策分析.通过实例证明,水晶球模拟方法可以更为科学有效地解决高度不确定条件下的R&D决策问题.
The research and development (R & D) investment and the traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) method ignore the value of the management flexibility of the project itself. Although the real option can capture the value of management flexibility well, it can not be effectively solved However, it requires complex computer programs to solve the problem of the algorithm.On the basis of analyzing the real options, the author uses Monte Carlo theory to analyze the volatility of the parameters in a highly uncertain environment. , The use of crystal ball software for R & D decision-making analysis.Examples show that the crystal ball simulation method can be more scientifically and efficiently to solve the problem of highly uncertain R & D decision-making.