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目的针对辐射致癌危险的时间外推问题,对我国人群辐射致癌的终生危险进行估算。方法根据ICRP 103号建议书推荐成果对危险预测模型中终生危险的寿命表估算法进行解析,并利用该方法结合近年来我国人口寿命表及癌症基线率对不同器官辐射致癌超额终生危险值进行估算。结果估算得到了0~90岁中国人群食道、胃、结肠、肝、肺、乳腺、卵巢、膀胱、甲状腺及其他等10种器官的性别平均和受照年龄平均的辐射致癌超额终生癌症危险及危害值。结论结果显示我国人口各器官辐射致癌超额终生危险值和危害值在ICRP 103号建议书推荐值约±50%范围内,合计超额终生危险值和危害值比ICRP 103号建议书推荐值略偏高。
Objective To estimate the lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer in our country based on the time extrapolation of carcinogenic risk of radiation. Methods According to the recommended results in ICRP Recommendation 103, the life-time estimation method of lifetime risk in the hazard prediction model was analyzed and used to estimate the excess lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancers in different organs by combining with the population life-table of our country and the baseline rate of cancer in recent years . Results The average and age-average age-related risk of radiation-induced cancer of over-lifetime cancer were obtained in 0-90-year-old Chinese population of 10 kinds of organs including esophagus, stomach, colon, liver, lung, breast, ovary, bladder, thyroid and others value. Conclusions The results show that the over lifetime risk and hazard values of radiation carcinogenesis in various organs of the population are within about ± 50% of the recommended values in ICRP Recommendation 103. The combined excess lifetime risk and hazard values are slightly higher than those recommended by ICRP Recommendation 103 .