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自1998年中国停止住房实物分配,逐步实行住房分配货币化,我国的房地产业进入快速发展时期。房价随着政策制度的放开也逐步市场化,呈现显著上涨的趋势。而1998年后的中国综合国力大幅提高,从当时的世界第六位,跃居现在的第二。人民生活水平显著改善,人均可支配收入大幅调高。在火热的房地产业发展高速的同时也产生了许多问题,尤其是房价泡沫问题。中国经济是否要靠房地产业来推动,房价过高是否会影响人们的收入水平和生活质量。文章从动态的VAR模型对上述问题进行了量化分析,以期回答上述问题做出依据。
Since 1998, China stopped the physical distribution of housing, and gradually implemented the monetization of housing distribution, China’s real estate industry has entered a period of rapid development. With the release of the policy of housing prices also gradually market-oriented, showing a significant upward trend. After 1998, China’s comprehensive national strength has risen sharply from the sixth place in the world to the second place now. The standard of living of the people has been significantly improved, and the per capita disposable income has risen sharply. In the fiery real estate development has also caused many problems, especially the housing price bubble. Whether China’s economy should rely on the real estate industry to promote, whether the high prices will affect people’s income level and quality of life. The article carries on the quantitative analysis to the above questions from the dynamic VAR model, in order to answer the above questions to make the basis.