论文部分内容阅读
东北地区是我国具有战略意义的商品粮基地,研究气候变化对东北地区玉米产量的影响具有重要意义。采用区域气候模式与作物生长WOFOST模型相结合的方法,模拟了基准气候(BS,1961-1990年)和B2情景下2011-2050年东北地区的玉米单产,初步预测了未来气候情景下玉米单产的变化状况。结果表明:WOFOST作物模型能较好的模拟东北地区的玉米产量,模型检验结果表明,该模型对玉米产量的模拟在70%～80%年份里的模拟精确度在80%以上。模拟结果显示:未来10-20年内,东北地区北部大部地区玉米具有增产潜力,但就北地区整体而言,总体增产幅度较小。2030s和2040s东北地区大部受气候因素影响表现为减产。未来40年,受气候变化影响东北地区玉米单产总体表现为减产,减产幅度为9.5%。由于目前的研究结果存在未考虑农业生产的适应措施等局限性,可能会高估气候变化的负面影响。
Northeast China is a strategic commodity grain base in China. It is of great significance to study the impact of climate change on the yield of maize in northeast China. Using the combination of regional climate model and crop growth WOFOST model, the yields of maize in northeastern China from 2011 to 2050 under the baseline climate (BS, 1961-1990) and B2 were simulated to predict the yield of maize in the future climate scenario Change situation. The results showed that the WOFOST crop model could simulate the yield of maize in northeastern China. The results of model test showed that the simulation accuracy of maize yield in this model was more than 80% in 70% ~ 80% years. The simulation results show that in the next 10 to 20 years, corn in most northern regions of northeast China has the potential to increase production, but in the northern region as a whole, the overall rate of increase is relatively small. Most of the 2030s and 2040s northeastern regions are affected by the climatic factors and show a decrease in production. In the next 40 years, the yield per unit area of maize in northeastern China affected by climate change will generally decrease by 9.5%. Because of the current research results that do not take into account limitations such as adaptation measures for agricultural production, the negative effects of climate change may be overestimated.