论文部分内容阅读
作者在前一篇文章中介绍了波动论的发展过程。最后还指出,关于金融价格随机进展的分析,有了引人注目的发展。但是,就周期论而言,令人感兴趣的新因素则是,近几年来这种分析超出了金融的范围,而且被某些作者应用于一系列宏观经济因素的演变。这种应用源于格兰杰和摩根斯顿的意见。他们认为,一系列经济因素一般都具有典型的外观,一方面表现为类似自由发展的短期波动,另一方面又表现为稳定增长的长期趋势。
The author introduced the development of wave theory in the previous article. Finally, it is pointed out that there has been a remarkable development in the analysis of the random progress of financial prices. However, the new factor of interest to cycle theory is that in recent years this analysis has gone beyond finance and has been applied by some authors to the evolution of a host of macroeconomic factors. This kind of application stems from the opinion of Granger and Morgenstern. In their view, a series of economic factors are generally of a typical appearance, on the one hand as short-term fluctuations similar to free development and on the other hand as long-term trends of steady growth.