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文章探讨了主要经济体以及全世界的长期财政前景。文章认为,如果当前的税率或政府的退休和卫生保健惠民工程没有发生变化,未来25年政府债务规模将在大多数发达经济体和许多新兴经济体中增长到危险和不可持续的水平。虽然对于主要的经济体来说,在经济增长不出现任何大的、出乎意料的负面震荡的情况下,危险区很可能还比较远,大约会发生在今后10～25年时间内,但如果允许政府债务继续增长,利率最终将上升,从而挤出生产性投资,降低经济增长率。严重的经济下滑有可能迅速推动政府债务水平上升到危险区间,并极大地增加爆发危机的可能性。因此,政策制定者现在就应该开始计划进程,将政府债务调整到可持续的轨道。当前计划中的预算削减应该延迟到2013～2015年执行,额外的预算削减措施也应该从2016年开始实行。此外,应该立刻在控制退休和医疗成本方面达成一致,认真解决这个威胁到增长的问题。
The article explores the long-term fiscal prospects of major economies and the world. The article argues that the government debt scale will rise to dangerous and unsustainable levels in most developed and many emerging economies in the next 25 years if the current tax rates or government retirement and health care benefits projects remain unchanged. Although for major economies there are likely to be no further large, unexpected shocks to economic growth, the danger zone is likely to be far behind, probably in the next 10 to 25 years, but if Allowing government debt to continue to grow, interest rates will eventually rise, squeezing out productive investment and reducing the rate of economic growth. A severe economic downturn has the potential to promptly push the level of government debt to dangerous levels and greatly increase the likelihood of an outbreak. Therefore, policymakers should now begin planning the process of adjusting government debt to a sustainable trajectory. Budget cuts in the current plan should be delayed until 2013-2015, and additional budget cuts should start in 2016. In addition, an immediate agreement should be reached on the control of retirement and health care costs, and the issue that poses a serious threat to growth should be seriously addressed.