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为研究重大水利工程运行对下游圩堤漫顶风险率的影响,以鄱阳湖区廿四联圩为例,建立了基于JC法的防洪堤漫顶条件风险率的计算模型,计算了三峡运行前后鄱阳湖廿四联圩的漫顶条件风险率。计算结果表明,由于三峡水库预泄,当发生10年一遇洪水时,廿四联圩漫顶条件风险率增加0.21%,当发生20年一遇洪水时,廿四联圩漫顶条件风险率增加2.78%。通过对比分析漫顶风险率的变化表明,三峡运行前后,由堤前洪水位变化引起的廿四联圩的漫顶风险率变化并不明显。
In order to study the influence of major water conservancy projects on the risk ratio of downstream dike embankment, taking the 24 times polder in Poyang Lake as an example, a calculation model of risk ratio of flood control embankment roof based on JC method was established. Lake Twenty four levee diffuse top risk conditions. The calculation results show that due to the pre-venting of the Three Gorges Reservoir, when the flooding occurs in 10 years, the risk ratio of the top condition of Nian quadruplex drains increases by 0.21%. When a flooding occurs in 20 years, the top risk ratio Increase 2.78%. The comparative analysis of the change of the risk ratio of the overpressure shows that there is no obvious change of the risk ratio of the overriding risk caused by the change of the flood level before the Three Gorges Project.