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本文的目的在于回答两个问题:第一,21世纪中国经济周期平稳化的原因何在?第二,21世纪中国经济波动的来源何在?利用统计分析和构造的多方程结构宏观经济模型,我们发现第一个问题的答案几乎完全在于国内因素,包括国内需求冲击的稳定和信贷市场中的自稳定机制;就第二个问题而言,21世纪中国经济波动的最大来源在于国外需求冲击和国内需求冲击——前者对GDP的波动影响较大,而后者则更多地影响CPI。本文的另一个发现是,传统的盯住货币供应量的货币政策对稳定GDP和CPI几乎没有效果。本文的政策建议之一是,在全球危机的背景下,稳定总需求的国内经济刺激政策依然很重要。本文的另一个建议是,为了摆脱全球化的负面影响,我们需要更加依靠城市化而非工业化,并在国内调整各个区域的经济角色。
The purpose of this paper is to answer two questions: First, what are the reasons for China’s economic cycle stabilization in the 21st century? Second, what is the source of China’s economic fluctuations in the 21st century? Using statistical analysis and the constructed macroeconomic model of multi-equation structure, we find The answer to the first question lies almost entirely in domestic factors, including the stabilization of domestic demand shocks and the self-stabilizing mechanism in the credit market. On the second issue, the biggest source of China’s economic fluctuations in the 21st century lies in the impact of foreign demand and domestic demand Impact - The former has a greater impact on GDP volatility, while the latter has more impact on CPI. Another finding of this paper is that the traditional monetary policy that pegs the money supply has little effect on stable GDP and CPI. One of the policy recommendations in this article is that the domestic economic stimulus policies that stabilize aggregate demand remain important in the context of the global crisis. Another suggestion in this paper is that in order to get rid of the negative effects of globalization, we need to rely more on urbanization rather than industrialization and to adjust the economic role of each region at home.