论文部分内容阅读
针对水资源可持续利用状态具有动态可变性的评价标准及指标值具有区间性的问题,根据实行最严格水资源管理制度的思想,从用水总量、效率、水质及社会经济等方面确定了影响水资源可持续利用状态的重要指标,从而建立了基本评价体系,并确定了其评价标准,进而采用基于区间值的水资源可持续利用状态可变模糊评价方法分析了大连市水资源可持续利用状态评价指标体系、评价标准、模型参数及指标值等不确定性因素,评价了大连市各水平年的水资源可持续利用状态。结果表明:现状年(2007年)下大连市水资源可持续利用状态处于中级偏低水平;非常规水源利用规模的不断增大及外调水工程的陆续运行,一定程度上保障了未来经济社会发展对水资源的需求,提高了大连市水资源可持续利用能力,规划水平年(2015、2020、2030年)下水资源可持续利用状态基本稳定于中级或中级偏高水平。
According to the idea of implementing the most stringent water resources management system, the evaluation criteria and index values that have the dynamic variability of the sustainable utilization of water resources are determined from the aspects of total water consumption, efficiency, water quality and social economy Therefore, the basic evaluation system was established and its evaluation criteria were established. Then the variable fuzzy evaluation method based on interval value of sustainable use status of water resources was used to analyze the sustainable utilization of water resources in Dalian State evaluation index system, evaluation criteria, model parameters and index values and other uncertainties, evaluate the sustainable utilization of water resources in all levels of Dalian. The results showed that the state of sustainable use of water resources in Dalian City was in the middle and low level under the status quo (2007); the increasing use of unconventional water sources and the successive operation of water diversion projects ensured the economic and social development in the future to a certain extent The demand for water resources will be improved and the water resources sustainable utilization ability of Dalian will be improved. The state of sustainable use of water resources in the planned years (2015, 2020 and 2030) is basically stable at the intermediate or intermediate level.