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本文通过中国菜籽和菜油市场需求特征分析,探讨了菜油的消费需求趋势,并对中国菜籽消费需求的主要影响因素进行了量化分析。研究发现中国菜籽的出口量极小,影响国内菜籽市场需求的主要因素是菜籽价格和菜籽的国内消费;菜籽进口对国内菜籽市场和需求结构有着重要影响,中国菜籽进口量对国内外菜籽市场价格变动富有弹性,而降低菜籽进口壁垒会促进菜籽进口量的增加且对缓解国内供需矛盾十分有利。
Based on the analysis of the demand characteristics of Chinese rapeseed and rapeseed oil market, this paper discusses the trend of consumption demand of rapeseed oil and quantitatively analyzes the main influencing factors of rapeseed consumption demand in China. The study found that the export volume of Chinese rapeseed is extremely small. The main factors affecting the domestic rapeseed market demand are the price of rapeseed and the domestic consumption of rapeseed. The import of rapeseed has a significant impact on the domestic rapeseed market and the demand structure. The import of Chinese rapeseed The quantity is flexible to the fluctuation of the domestic and international rapeseed market prices, and reducing the rapeseed import barrier will promote the increase of the rapeseed imports and is very beneficial to alleviating the contradiction between domestic supply and demand.