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不久前,美国经济学家罗伯特·卢卡斯(Robert E.Lucas,Jr.)获得了1995年度的诺贝尔经济学奖。在西方的经济学家中,卢卡斯是个很有争议的人物。许多人激烈地反对他的经济学说,认为他根本否定了国家干预经济生活的必要。但是在笔者看来,恰恰是我们中国的经济学家才万万不能这样看待卢卡斯的经济学说。西方与中国的政治经济环境极不相同,同样的经济学说在西方与中国可能有根本不同的政策含义。我们中国人需要理解的是卢卡斯经济学说的真正要点,那就是:名义总需求的扩张和通货膨胀都不会真正提高经济增长率。
Not long ago, Robert E. Lucas, Jr., a U.S. economist, won the Nobel Prize in Economics for 1995. Among Western economists, Lucas is a controversial figure. Many people are fiercely opposed to his theory of economics and think that he simply deny the necessity of state intervention in economic life. However, it seems to me that it is precisely this economist in China who must not view Lucas’s theory of economics in this way. The political and economic environment between the West and China is very different. The same economic theory may have fundamentally different policy implications in the West and China. What we Chinese need to understand is the real point of Lucas’s theory of economics: neither the expansion of nominal nominal demand nor inflation will really increase the rate of economic growth.