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文章基于新开放经济宏观经济学框架确定了实际汇率波动的三类基本影响因素,扩展引入了我国二元人口和产业结构两类因素,并运用VAR模型进行实证分析,结果表明:人民币实际汇率的波动主要由实际货币余额和名义汇率解释,生产率的解释力存在但不突出的原因是二元人口结构因素削弱了B-S效应,我国产业结构因素对实际汇率波动的解释力最低。进一步,货币政策和名义汇率应作为调节人民币实际汇率的有效工具,随着我国农村人口比例的下降,B-S效应对实际汇率的影响将会更显著。
Based on the macroeconomic framework of the new open economy, the article has determined three basic influencing factors of real exchange rate volatility, expanded the introduction of dual factors of China’s dual population and industrial structure, and conducted empirical analysis using VAR models. The results show that the real exchange rate of RMB The fluctuation is mainly explained by the real money balance and the nominal exchange rate. The reason that the explanation power of productivity exists but does not stand out is that the dual population structure factor weakens the BS effect, and the factor of industrial structure in our country has the lowest explanatory power of the real exchange rate fluctuation. Further, monetary policy and nominal exchange rate should be used as effective instruments for regulating the real exchange rate of RMB. As the proportion of rural population in our country declines, the effect of B-S on real exchange rate will be even more significant.