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伊朗油气产能和出口量的释放,将对全球油气供需形势产生深远影响。2016年年初至年中,欧美制裁或将撤销,预计将有大量浮仓释放。伊朗原油日产量有望提高30×104~50×104bbl,出口量有望提高50×104bbl/d左右。2016年年中至年底,伊朗逐步加大与国际石油公司合作,上游投资逐步加大,部分关闭油井重启,其日产量将比当前提高80×104~100×104bbl。同时,近年全球石油消费总量增长缓慢。美国“页岩油气革命”使得北美油气进口大幅度萎缩;欧洲能源消费触顶,大力发展新能源技术降低了对化石能源的依赖。中国、印度等新兴经济体石油进口的增长也因此被大幅度抵消。在全球油气供
Iran’s oil and gas production capacity and export volume will have a profound impact on the global oil and gas supply and demand situation. From the beginning of 2016 to the middle of 2016, the sanctions in Europe and the United States will be withdrawn and a large number of floating positions are expected to be released. Iranian crude oil output is expected to increase 30 × 104 ~ 50 × 104bbl, the export volume is expected to increase about 50 × 104bbl / d. From the middle of 2016 to the end of the year, Iran gradually increased its cooperation with international oil companies. As the upstream investment gradually increased and some oil wells were restarted, its daily output will increase by 80 × 104 ~ 100 × 104bbl. In the meantime, the global oil consumption growth has been slow in recent years. The United States “shale oil and gas revolution ” caused North American oil and gas imports substantially reduced; European energy consumption peaked, vigorously develop new energy technologies to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels. As a result, oil imports from emerging economies such as China and India have also been largely offset by their growth. In the global oil and gas supply