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大量研究认为财政支出会通过公共服务资本化以及土地财政这两种渠道推动房价上涨,这意味着政府扩大民生支出的政策与遏制房价过快上涨的政策之间存在矛盾,难以实现协调统一。本文通过建立离散动态最优化模型发现,民生支出与房价之间具有复杂的联系,民生支出具有房价调节器的作用:当房地产市场出现过热时,扩大民生支出能够遏制房价上涨;当房地产市场低迷时,扩大民生支出可以刺激市场复苏。利用系统GMM方法对中国省级行政单位的面板数据进行的估计证实了这一发现,而且估计结果是稳健的。
A large number of studies think that public expenditure on finance will promote housing prices through capitalization of public services and land finance, which means that there is a contradiction between the government’s policy of expanding people’s livelihood expenditures and the policy of curbing housing price increase too fast, which makes it difficult to achieve harmony and unity. This article through the establishment of discrete dynamic optimization model found that the relationship between people’s livelihood and house prices have a complex relationship between the people’s livelihood expenditures with the role of house price regulator: when the real estate market overheating, expanding people’s livelihood expenditures to curb housing prices; when the real estate market downturn , Expanding people’s livelihood spending can stimulate the market recovery. The estimation of panel data using the provincial GMM method using the system GMM method confirms this finding and the results are robust.