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Predicting and modeling of items popularity on web 2.0 have attracted great attention of many scholars.From the perspective of information competition,we propose a probabilistic model using the branching process to characterize the process in which micro-blogging gains its popularity.The model is analytically tractable and can reproduce several characteristics of empirical micro-blogging data on Sina micro-blog,the most popular microblogging system in China.We find that the information competition on micro-blog network leads to the decay of information popularity obeying power law distribution with exponent about 1.5,and the value is similar to the exponent of degree distribution of micro-blog network.Furthermore,the mean popularity is decided by the probability of innovating a new message.Our work presents evidence supporting the idea that two distinct factors affect information popularity:information competition and social network structure.