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水利工程对水库地震的抗震设防要求事先对水库地震进行预测。预测内容包括蓄水后诱发地震的危险性(可能性)、最大震级、最大震的地点、发生时间以及水库地震对场址地震动参数的影响等。除主震时间的预测外,本文第一作者都曾提出过初步的预测方法[1]。本文认为,水库地震前震波速比异常、非线性灰色模型以及前震系列回归等方法,是预测主震时间的有前途的方法。
Seismic fortification of reservoir earthquakes by hydraulic projects requires prior prediction of reservoir earthquakes. The forecast includes the risk (possibility) of induced earthquakes after impoundment, the maximum magnitude, the location of the maximum earthquake, the time of occurrence, and the impact of reservoir earthquakes on the ground motion parameters. In addition to the prediction of the main shock time, the first author of this paper have proposed a preliminary prediction method [1]. This paper argues that the methods of predicting the main shock time are the methods of anomalous seismic wave velocity ratio, nonlinear gray model and series regression of foreshocks before the reservoir earthquake.