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本文提出了一种依据历史上出现的各次台风记录,选其主要气候特征(即台风强度、尺度、登陆位置、移行方向及速度等)进行概率分析,从而得出包括未来可能出现的各种不同特征的台风模型,即模拟台风的方法。 模拟台风不仅具有其特定的强度、尺度、移行路径和速度的组合,而且具有一定的出现频率或重现期,因此可以直接用于台风带来的暴雨、狂风、巨浪和风暴潮位的推算。选取不同重现期的模拟台风后,可以得到不同重现期的设计风速、设计波高和风暴增水值。
This paper presents a probabilistic analysis based on historical records of typhoons and the selection of their main climatic characteristics (ie typhoon intensity, scale, landing location, direction and speed of migration, etc.) Different characteristics of the typhoon model, that is, the method of simulating typhoon. The simulated typhoon not only has the combination of its specific strength, scale, transition path and speed, but also has a certain frequency of occurrence or period of recurrence, so it can be directly used in the calculation of heavy rain, squally wind, huge waves and storm tide caused by typhoon. After selecting simulated typhoon with different recurrence periods, the designed wind speed, designed wave height and storm surge value at different recurrence periods can be obtained.