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在 激烈的市场竞争环境中,企业时时刻刻都面临 破产的风险。倘若企业能预知破产的发生,企 业就可以主动地采取行动,避免破产,延长企业的寿命。下面介绍的两种破产预测模型可供企业借鉴。 阿尔特曼模型(Altman model) 纽约大学的阿尔特曼把财务比率分折和统计技术结合起来进行破产预测。这种方法称为多元判别分析法(MDA)。它适用多个变量,并在统计观察的基础上得到各个变量的加权值,将加权值综合整理,编造成一个判别函数。其形式是:
In a fierce market competition environment, companies face the risk of bankruptcy at all times. If the company can predict the occurrence of bankruptcies, the company can take the initiative to take action to avoid bankruptcy and prolong the life of the company. The two bankruptcy prediction models introduced below can be used by enterprises for reference. Altman model Altman at New York University combines financial ratios and statistical techniques to make bankruptcy predictions. This method is called multiple discriminant analysis (MDA). It applies a number of variables, and on the basis of statistical observations, the weights of each variable are obtained. The weighted values are comprehensively arranged and compiled into a discriminant function. Its form is: