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资本异常流出造成的危害较之异常流入更加严重和致命,也更值得我们重视和警惕。本文在宏观分析中国近年资本流动,特别是流出趋势后,建立资本异常流出的监测和识别体系,并在此体系基础上构建影响资本异常流出的理论模型,找到影响异常流出的主要因素,之后通过计量模型对这些主要变量进行实证验证,并针对理论和实证结果提出相应的政策建议。通过研究,本文认为,较之利差和进出口额,政策管制是控制异常流出最为有效的途径之一,而加快产业转型升级,实现经济稳定高速增长则是控制资本异常流出的根本方法。
It is even more deserving of our attention and vigilance because the harm caused by the anomalous outflow of capital is more serious and deadly than the anomalous influx. In this paper, macroscopical analysis of China’s capital flows in recent years, especially after the outflow trend, the establishment of capital outflow monitoring and identification system, and on the basis of this system to build a theoretical model of abnormal capital outflows to find the main factors that affect the abnormal outflow, and then by The econometric model empirically verifies these main variables and makes corresponding policy recommendations based on the theoretical and empirical results. Through research, this paper argues that the policy control is one of the most effective ways to control the outflow of anomalies compared with the spread and the volume of imports and exports. However, accelerating the industrial transformation and upgrading and achieving stable and rapid economic growth are the fundamental ways to control the anomalous outflow of capital.