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根据对云南、四川5995次地震资料的研究,本文提出了一种新的前震序列的判别方法。以某点为园心,50公里为半径,在10天内所发生的M_L≤4.8的地震归为同一序列。在所有1192次地震序列中,序列发生后在250天时间200公里范围内有M_S≥4.8级地震发生的共计481个序列。对比481个序列按其序列中地震的震级差M_1-F_1或M_1-A_1进行统计,发现当序列内震级差大于等于1.0时,其后中强震发生的概率极高,约为0.82。由此我们选取震级差大于等于1.0的序列为短期前震标志,从而建立一种人机结合进行地震预报的方法。
Based on the research of 5995 seismic data in Yunnan and Sichuan Province, this paper presents a new method of discriminating foreclose sequences. With a certain point as the center and a radius of 50 km, the earthquakes with M_L≤4.8 occurred within 10 days are grouped into the same sequence. In all 1192 earthquakes, a total of 481 sequences occurred with a M_S≥4.8 earthquakes within 200 km of 250 days after the sequence occurred. Comparing the 481 sequences with the M_1-F_1 or M_1-A_1 statistics of the earthquakes in their sequences, it is found that when the intra-sequence magnitude is greater than or equal to 1.0, the probability of subsequent moderate-strong earthquakes is extremely high at about 0.82. Therefore, we select the sequence with the magnitude difference greater than or equal to 1.0 as the short-term fore-shock marker, so as to establish a man-machine combined earthquake prediction method.