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根据保障资源在装备使用任务活动和装备保障活动中被消耗或占用的特点提出了以保障活动为中心的保障资源预测方法。以装备的运行活动为驱动,结合装备的可靠性、维修性和测试性等设计特性,建立装备使用任务与装备保障活动之间的关系,对保障活动的频度和时域特征进行抽象。根据保障资源使用特点进行分类,归纳了以保障活动为中心的装备保障资源预测的输入条件。从消耗性资源和占用性资源两个方面分别建立了保障资源需求量预测模型,可以在一个特定阶段内对保障站点内的装备群保障资源平均需求量进行预测,并用飞机装备进行了案例验证,可为研制部门进行保障资源数量预测提供有效的理论和技术支持。
According to the characteristics of safeguarding resources being consumed or occupied in the equipment use task activity and equipment support activity, a resource prediction method based on guarantee activity is put forward. Based on the operational activities of the equipment and the design characteristics of reliability, maintainability and testability of the equipment, the relationship between equipment usage tasks and equipment support activities is established, and the frequency and time domain characteristics of the safeguard activities are abstracted. According to the characteristics of the use of resources protection, the input conditions of equipment support resources prediction with protection activities as the center are summarized. From two aspects of consumptive resources and occupancy resources, the model of predicting resource demand is set up respectively, which can predict the average demand of equipment group security resources within a certain period and verify the case with aircraft equipment. It can provide effective theoretical and technical support for the development department to predict the amount of resources to be protected.