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本文主要探究老龄化对我国医药行业上市公司盈利性的影响。采用1999—2015年的数据,在进行ADF单位根检验和Johnson协整检验后,通过构建多元线性回归模型,将医药生物行业股价指数与其他16个行业进行对比,发现老龄化变量的系数对包括医药行业在内的6个行业显著。然后修改Fama-French三因子模型,在其中加入了壮年人口比例和老年人口比例两个表示人口年龄结构的变量,在这6个行业对年龄结构变量进行联合检验,结果均显著。这说明我国人口老龄化对包括医药行业在内的6个行业上市公司的盈利性有显著的影响,因此人口的年龄结构可以作为这些行业长线投资的一个参考因素。
This article focuses on the impact of aging on the profitability of listed companies in China’s pharmaceutical industry. Using data from 1999 to 2015, after conducting the ADF unit root test and Johnson cointegration test, a multivariate linear regression model was used to compare the pharmaceutical bioindustry stock price index with 16 other industries and found that the coefficients of the aging variable included The six industries including the pharmaceutical industry are significant. Then, the Fama-French three-factor model was modified, and two variables representing the age structure of the population were added to the ratio of the population of the senior population and the proportion of the elderly population. The combination of the age structure variables in the six industries showed significant results. This shows that the aging population in China has a significant impact on the profitability of listed companies in the six industries, including the pharmaceutical industry. Therefore, the age structure of the population can be used as a reference factor for long-term investment in these industries.