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中国经济的快速发展,使陆路交通的密度、长度和搭乘陆路交通工具的物资和人口流动规模日益增加,交通客流和物流的增多也使遭遇自然灾害的风险进一步加大。通过数据统计、GIS方法,对我国陆路交通干线(公路、铁路)的密度和过去死亡人口和自然灾害损失的模数进行叠合分析,认为在自然灾害频次和灾种呈上升趋势的背景下,陆路交通干线的极端灾害事件日益增多,中国自然灾害的风险因子在地域分布上中、东部高,西北部低。我国目前众多的极端灾害事件对交通干线的影响,是因为对交通干线的风险因子识别研究不足,应该从节点城市、干线路段和区域交通网络三个方面对陆路交通干线自然灾害的风险展开研究。
With the rapid economic development in China, the density and length of land transport and the scale of materials and population flowing by land transport are increasing. The increase of traffic and logistics also further increases the risk of encountering natural disasters. Based on the data statistics and the GIS method, the author superposed the modalities of the density of land transport lines (roads and railways) and those of past deaths and natural disasters in our country. Under the background of the increasing frequency of natural disasters and the increasing number of disaster-prone areas, The number of extreme disasters on land transport routes is increasing. The risk factors of natural disasters in China are high in the east, low in the northwest. The current impact of many extreme disaster events on traffic lines in our country is due to the lack of research on the identification of risk factors of traffic routes. Therefore, we should study the risks of natural disasters on land transport links from three aspects: node cities, trunk routes and regional traffic networks.