论文部分内容阅读
移动平均数法可平衡影响死亡率的长期趋势、周期变动及随机变异,从而分析纯季节因子对死亡率的影响。本文采用移动平均数法对当阳市1976年7月～1990年6月死亡率进行了季节性分析。死亡资料来源于《死因调查卡》。每年的死亡率以1989年本市人口年龄构成为标准进行标化。结果:总死亡率及分年龄组死亡率的季节变动:观察期间的平均总死亡率为466.89/10万,总死亡率的季节因子(指校正季节因子)2月最高(128.90),12月最低(6.43)。0岁组最高为2月(176.63),最低为10月(44.41);学龄前儿童(1～6岁)7月最高,为平均水平的1.92倍,10月最低,为平均水平的38.99%;
The moving average method balances long-term trends, cyclical changes, and random variations that affect mortality to analyze the effect of pure seasonal factors on mortality. In this paper, the moving average method was used to analyze the seasonal mortality of Dangyang from July 1976 to June 1990. Death data from the “cause of death investigation card.” The annual death rate is normalized to the age composition of the city in 1989 as a standard. Results: The seasonal changes of total mortality and age-specific mortality were 466.89 / 100 000 during the observation period. The seasonal factor of total mortality (corrected seasonal factor) was the highest in February (128.90) and the lowest in December (6.43). The highest score in 0-year-old group was February (176.63) and the lowest was October (44.41). The preschool children (1-6 years old) had the highest in July, which was 1.92 times of the average and the lowest in October, which was 38.99% of the average.