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“房地产如果崩盘,中国经济将付出沉重代价。”早在今年3、4月份,房地产市场有所回暖、一些消费者怨声又起时,一位金融学教授便如此告诫。这位金融学教授算了一笔账,如果房价12个月内下跌30%,房地产行业的不良贷款可能激升到1.02万亿,银行的不良资产率将上升3.2个百分点;对政府而言,由此增加的负担相当于建行、中行改制上市的全部花费;对居民而言,大致相当于14%的家庭财产被蒸发以及由此带来的失业、生活水平下降等。
“If the real estate collapses, the Chinese economy will pay a heavy price.” As early as March and April this year, the real estate market picked up and some consumers complained again when a finance professor warned. The professor of finance calculations, if the house prices fell 30% in 12 months, the real estate industry non-performing loans may rise to 1.02 trillion, the bank’s non-performing assets will rise 3.2 percentage points; for the government, The increase in the burden is equivalent to the Bank of China, Bank of China restructuring the total cost of listing; for residents, roughly equivalent to 14% of the family property is evaporated and the resulting unemployment, falling living standards.