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利用IPCC-AR4模式对未来预估的结果,分析了在不同排放情景下(A2、B1)中国东北地区气候和水资源变化的主要特征。研究表明:东北地区气温和降水随时间均呈上升趋势,气温的上升趋势非常明显,降水虽然也增加,但变化的趋势很弱,在A2情景下,气温和降水的变化幅度要大于B1情景。未来水资源的变化情况表明,蒸发量的变化最明显,在A2情景下增加了12.3%~14.4%,其次是地表径流,在A2情景下减少了4%~4.7%,而浅层和深层含水量虽然也是呈减少趋势,但是变化相对较小。
Based on the IPCC-AR4 model for the future estimation results, the main characteristics of climate and water resources changes in Northeast China under different emission scenarios (A2, B1) are analyzed. The results show that the temperature and precipitation in northeast China show an upward trend over time, and the upward trend of temperature is obvious. The precipitation also increases but the trend of the change is weak. Under the A2 scenario, the change of temperature and precipitation is greater than that of B1. The changes of water resources in the future show that the change of evaporation is the most obvious, increasing by 12.3% -14.4% in A2 scenario, followed by surface runoff, by 4% -4.7% in A2 scenario, while that in shallow and deep Although the amount of water is also decreasing trend, but the change is relatively small.