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目的了解新疆和田市2010—2014年肠道传染病流行特征,探索时间序列模型在肠道传染病预测中的应用。方法导出中国疾病监测信息报告系统中2010年1月—2014年12月和田市痢疾和其它感染性腹泻的病例资料,应用Excel 2010软件进行描述性分析,SPSS 18.0软件对月报告病例数进行时间序列分析,并利用拟合模型对2015年1—3月报告病例数进行预测。结果和田市每年报告的肠道传染病病例数较少,发病高峰期和高发年龄段均较明显,5—9月报告的病例数占全年病例数的89.37%,<5岁儿童占全部病例数的54.02%。最佳模型为简单季节性模型,模型残差序列为白噪声。结论夏秋季节应关注学龄前儿童的卫生状况,避免腹泻影响儿童健康发育。简单季节性模型对肠道传染病拟合效果较好,在下一步工作中可结合病原学监测结果做进一步分析。
Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of intestinal infectious diseases in Hotan, Xinjiang from 2010 to 2014 and to explore the application of time series model in the prediction of intestinal infectious diseases. Methods The data of cases of dysentery and other infectious diarrhea in Hetian City from January 2010 to December 2014 were derived from China Disease Surveillance Information Reporting System, and the descriptive analysis was performed by using Excel 2010 software. SPSS 18.0 software time series Analysis, and use the fitted model to predict the number of reported cases in January-March 2015. Results Hetian reported fewer cases of intestinal infectious diseases per year, peak incidence and high incidence of age were more obvious, from May to September reported the number of cases accounted for 89.37% of the number of cases, 5-year-old children accounted for all cases 54.02% of the number. The best model is a simple seasonal model, the model residual sequence is white noise. Conclusion Summer and autumn should pay attention to the health status of preschool children and avoid the diarrhea affecting the healthy development of children. Simple seasonal model for gut infection better fitting effect, in the next step can be combined with the etiological monitoring results for further analysis.