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基于2007年全国社会核算矩阵,利用数量乘数模型与价格乘数模型分析了能源消费总量控制可能带来的能效改进、能源价格调整、限制能源供给等对生产部门以及居民收入的影响。研究结果表明:相比煤炭与成品油,电价调整对部门的生产成本和居民消费价格影响最大;各类能源品种的效率改进将不同程度地导致全社会能源需求增加,引起能源效率回弹效应;限制能源供给量将直接或间接导致上下游部门产出量减少,阻碍经济增长,降低居民收入。
Based on 2007 National Social Accounting Matrix, the quantitative multiplier model and the price multiplier model were used to analyze the impact of total energy consumption control on energy efficiency improvement, energy price adjustment and energy supply restriction on the production sector and household income. The results show that compared with coal and refined oil, the price adjustment has the greatest impact on the departmental production cost and consumer price. The efficiency improvement of all kinds of energy sources will lead to the increase of energy demand and energy rebound effect in varying degrees. Limiting the amount of energy supply will directly or indirectly lead to the reduction of the output of the upstream and downstream sectors, hinder economic growth and reduce the income of residents.