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鉴于水文模型评价土地利用变化的特点,实际上水文模型的参数也可反映流域水文特性和降雨径流过程,不同时期的最优参数可以反映流域系统的变化。将统计学方法与水文模型相结合,分析土地利用变化对径流的影响,即先利用统计学方法判断降雨径流的趋势,找出降雨径流系列的突变点并据此划分不同时期,然后对不同时期日模型参数进行优选,并对参数变化结果进行对比分析。在大坡岭流域的应用表明,该方法对土地利用变化引起的径流响应分析行之有效。
In view of the characteristics of hydrological model for evaluating land use change, the parameters of hydrological model can actually reflect the hydrological characteristics and rainfall runoff process of the basin, and the optimal parameters of different periods can reflect the changes of the basin system. The statistical method is combined with the hydrological model to analyze the impact of land use change on runoff. First, the statistical method is used to judge the trend of rainfall runoff to find out the sudden change points of rainfall runoff series and to divide them into different periods. Then, Day model parameters are optimized, and the results of parameter changes are compared and analyzed. The application in Dapoling watershed shows that this method is effective in analyzing runoff response caused by land use change.