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针对目前小麦白粉病流行动态研究中存在的影响因子单一、预测结果有误报等问题,提出一种基于GAHP的小麦白粉病流行动态预测方法。该方法引入影响白粉病发生的多源因素,采用AHP算法定性分析影响因子和预测方案并定量计算出权重大小,同时聚类分析群组中各专家权重值,最后加权求和得出白粉病的流行动态。通过对2012年淮北地区小麦白粉病流行动态进行实例验证,对比发布的预测结果,结果准确,证明该方法的可行性和有效性较好。
Aiming at the problems such as the single influencing factor in the epidemiological study of wheat powdery mildew and the false positive result, the paper proposes a GAHP-based epidemic forecasting method for wheat powdery mildew. The method introduced multiple factors that affected the occurrence of powdery mildew and used AHP to qualitatively analyze the influencing factors and forecasting schemes and quantified the weights. At the same time, the weight of each expert in the cluster was analyzed by cluster analysis, and finally the powdery mildew Popular Through the case validation of the epidemic situation of wheat powdery mildew in Huaibei area in 2012, the published forecast result is accurate and the result is accurate. It proves that the method is feasible and effective.