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2015年股灾的根本原因是经济高杠杆。由于金融结构不合理和存在过度负债,当实体经济或企业部门利润减少、收益率下降时,债权性资产必定会通过各种途径进入股票二级市场,从事以短期获利为目的的、高风险的投机性交易。来自银行的债权性资产为股票投资者进行配资,必然导致“风险错配”和“期限错配”问题。根据金融不稳定理论,政府部门、家庭部门和非金融企业部门任何一个部门的债务都可能导致金融危机,因此,要防止明斯基时刻的到来,就必须防止每一种债务中出现庞氏融资。由于债务是难以消除的,因此降低杠杆率的唯一途径就是恢复股票市场的融资功能,增加全社会的股权融资规模。
The root cause of the 2015 stock market crash was the high economic leverage. Due to the irrational financial structure and the existence of over-indebtedness, when the profits of the real economy or the corporate sector decrease and the rate of return declines, the debt assets will surely enter the stock secondary market through various channels and engage in high-risk Speculative trading Debt assets from banks to fund investors, will inevitably lead to “risk mismatch ” and “maturity mismatch ” issue. According to the theory of financial instability, the debt of any sector of the government, family and non-financial sectors may lead to a financial crisis. Therefore, to prevent the arrival of Minsk’s time, it is necessary to prevent the occurrence of Ponzi financing in every kind of debt . Since debt can not be eliminated, the only way to reduce the leverage ratio is to restore the financing function of the stock market and increase the size of the equity financing of the whole society.