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目的掌握佛山市禅城区托幼机构手足口病的流行特点,构建流行模型,预测其流行趋势,为防控工作提供参考。方法对禅城区托幼机构2010—2016年手足口病发病数据进行流行病学分析,应用时间序列分析建立最佳时间序列模型,并以最佳模型开展疾病预测,运用EViews6进行平稳性检验、自相关分析,SPSS22拟合模型并诊断预测,率的比较采用χ2检验,检验水准α=0.05。结果佛山市禅城区托幼机构手足口病年均发病率为2.28%,4—9月多发,其中高峰在5—7月,有隔年流行现象,除2010年外还在9月和(或)11月有流行小高峰;男多于女(P<0.01),性别比为1.73:1,5岁以下占绝大多数,其中3岁病例最多。发病有年龄、镇街分布差异有统计学意义(均P<0.01),老城区年均发病最低。ARIMA(0,0,2)(2,0,0)12模型的标准化BIC最小,模型最佳,残差为白噪声序列;该模型拟合值曲线与实际值变化基本一致,拟合较理想,预测2017年上半年该区托幼机构手足口病流行趋势为先降后升,至5月达顶峰后再下降,预测总病例数较2016年同期下降约37.47%。结论佛山市禅城区托幼机构手足口病的发病疫情仍然严峻,需要加大预防控制力度。
Objective To grasp the epidemiological characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease in kindergartens and nurses in Chancheng District of Foshan City, construct the epidemic model, predict the epidemic trend and provide a reference for prevention and control work. Methods Epidemiological analysis of hand-foot-mouth disease data from 2010 to 2016 in the kindergartens and nurseries of Chancheng District was conducted. Time series analysis was used to establish the best time series model and the best model was used to predict the disease. Stationarity was tested using EViews6, Autocorrelation analysis, SPSS22 fitting model and the diagnosis of prediction, rate comparison using χ2 test, test level α = 0.05. Results The annual incidence rate of hand-foot-mouth disease was 2.28% in Chancheng district of Foshan city from April to September. The peak was in May-July and there was epidemic in the next year. In addition to 2010, it was still in September and (or ) Had a small epidemic peak in November; men were more than women (P <0.01). The sex ratio was 1.73: the majority of patients were under 1,5 years of age, of which the most was 3 years old. There are age of onset, the distribution of towns and townships were statistically significant (P <0.01), the lowest average annual incidence in the old city. The standard BIC of ARIMA (0,0,2) (2,0,0) 12 model is the smallest, the model is the best, and the residual is white noise. The fitting curve of this model is basically the same as the actual value, . It is estimated that the epidemic trend of hand-foot-mouth disease in kindergartens in the district in the first half of 2017 first drops and then rises to the peak in May and then drops again. The predicted total number of cases decreased by 37.47% as compared with the same period of 2016. Conclusion The outbreak of hand, foot and mouth disease in kindergartens and institutions in Chancheng District of Foshan City is still severe, and prevention and control efforts need to be strengthened.