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目的探索时间序列分析法ARIMA预测模型在医院双胎妊娠情况统计中的应用。方法运用时间序列分析法ARIMA模型预测医院双胎妊娠情况的发展趋势。结果建立ARIMA(3,1,1)(1,1,1)模型,预测医院未来2年在双胎妊娠情况中有向上的趋势性和季节性,预测数据在5月、8月和12月双胎妊娠情况中呈现高峰。结论 ARIMA(3,1,1)(1,1,1)模型可以较好的拟合2009-2012年湖南省妇幼保健院双胎妊娠情况统计的时间变化趋势。应用时间序列分析法ARIMA模型在医院双胎妊娠情况统计的预测研究精度较高,是一种理想的研究方法,能够为医院管理提供科学依据。
Objective To explore the application of time series analysis ARIMA prediction model in the statistics of twin pregnancies in hospitals. Methods The ARIMA model of time series analysis was used to predict the development trend of twin pregnancies in hospitals. Results The ARIMA (3,1,1) (1,1,1) model was established to predict upward trend and seasonality in twin pregnancies in the next 2 years. The forecasting data are in May, August and December Twin pregnancy peaked. Conclusion The ARIMA (3,1,1) (1,1,1) model can well fit the time trend of the twin pregnancy statistics in Hunan MCH hospital from 2009 to 2012. The application of time series analysis ARIMA model in the hospital twin pregnancies statistics prediction prediction accuracy is high, is an ideal research method, can provide a scientific basis for hospital management.