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[目的]建立灰色模型GM(1,1),预测上海市副溶血性弧菌引起的食源性疾病的发病率。[方法]利用2007—2010年上海市食源性疾病监测数据,运用Excel 2010,建立GM(1,1)模型,进行精度及适用性检验,预测2011、2012年发病率并验证。[结果]GM(1,1)预测模型为X(t+1)=124.32e0.59t-47.14,关联度rt=0.614,后验差比值C=0.24,小误差概率P=1,发展系数-α=0.59,模型预测2011、2012年发病的平均相对误差分别为57.48%、3.90%。[结论]建立的GM(1,1)模型精度好,谨慎适用短期(2~3年)预测;预测上海市副溶血性弧菌引起的食源性疾病的发病率呈上升趋势。
[Objective] To establish a gray model GM (1,1) to predict the incidence of food borne diseases caused by Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Shanghai. [Method] With the monitoring data of foodborne diseases in Shanghai from 2007 to 2010 and using Excel 2010, the GM (1,1) model was established to test the accuracy and applicability, and to predict the incidence in 2011 and 2012. [Result] The forecasting model of GM (1,1) was X (t + 1) = 124.32e0.59t-47.14, the correlation rt = 0.614, the posterior difference ratio C = 0.24 and the small error probability P = α = 0.59. The average relative error of the model predicted incidence in 2011 and 2012 were 57.48% and 3.90%, respectively. [Conclusion] The GM (1,1) model was established with good accuracy and cautious short-term (2-3 years) prediction. The incidence of food borne diseases caused by Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Shanghai was predicted to increase.