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中国政府决策对经济活动具有重要作用,作为地方政府的主要决策者,各市域主政官员的更替会较大程度地影响城市经济增长和空间增长。基于2000—2013年250个地级市数据,研究了地方主官对城市空间增长的影响及作用机制。结果表明:(1)地方主官更替年份比非更替年份的城市空间增长率平均低2个百分点;地方主官在更替1年后对城市空间增长具有显著正向影响,会使城市空间增长提高1.5个百分点。进一步分析显示,东部地区地方主官更替年份空间增长波动较大,东北和中部次之,西部保持均衡;大城市和小城市地方主官更替对空间增长波动的影响较中等城市大。(2)地方主官通过土地出让和基础设施建设影响城市空间增长。主官更替的年份城市土地出让面积会显著下降,而后土地出让面积增加;地方主官更替年份对基础设施的影响不显著,在更替后的两年显著为正。上级决策者要采取相关政策,避免官员换届更替带来的城市增长波动。
Chinese government decision-making plays an important role in economic activities. As the chief decision makers of local governments, the replacement of chief officials in various municipalities will greatly affect the urban economic growth and spatial growth. Based on the data of 250 prefecture-level cities from 2000 to 2013, this paper studies the influence of local officials on urban spatial growth and its mechanism. The results show that: (1) The annual replacement rate of local chief officers is 2 percentage points lower than that of the non-replacement years; the local chief officers have a significant positive impact on the urban growth after a year of replacement, which will increase the urban spatial growth 1.5 percentage points. Further analysis shows that the replacement of local chief officials in the eastern part of the year has great fluctuations in the spatial growth of the year, followed by the northeast and the central part and the western part in a balanced manner. The replacement of local principal officials in big cities and small cities has a greater impact on spatial growth than in the medium-sized cities. (2) The local chief officials affected the urban growth through the land transfer and infrastructure construction. In the year in which the chief officer was replaced, the land transfer area of urban land decreased significantly, and the land transfer area increased. The impact of local chief officer replacement years on infrastructure was insignificant, significantly positive in the two years after the replacement. Policy makers at higher levels should adopt relevant policies to avoid the fluctuation of urban growth caused by the change of officials.