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2008年全球金融危机带来的后果之一是全球贸易量的大幅下滑,中国表现极为明显。本文利用CEPII-BACI数据库1995—2009年HS-6位数国际贸易数据,客观描述了金融危机背景下中国出口二元边际变动的事实。我们发现,金融危机对中国出口的影响主要表现为集约边际的变化,而扩展边际变化较小。同时,中间产品的出口更易受外部冲击的影响,这进一步验证了垂直专业化是金融危机影响贸易的重要渠道之一。因此,中国出口增长方式需要从集约边际转向扩展边际,以缓解外部冲击的影响。
One of the consequences of the global financial crisis in 2008 was a sharp decline in the volume of global trade. China has shown remarkable achievements. In this paper, international trade data of HS-6 digits in CEPII-BACI database from 1995 to 2009 are used to objectively describe the fact that China’s exports are subject to dual marginal changes under the financial crisis. We find that the impact of the financial crisis on China’s exports is mainly manifested as a change in the intensive and marginal changes while the marginal change in expansion is small. At the same time, the export of intermediate products is more vulnerable to external shocks, which further proves that vertical specialization is one of the important channels for the financial crisis to affect trade. Therefore, China’s export growth mode needs to shift from intensive margins to extensive marginalization to ease the impact of external shocks.