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文章采用相对资源承载力的研究思路和计算方法,以全国和新疆作为参照区域,分别计算了1996年-2008年时段内的各年乌鲁木齐市自然资源、经济资源的相对承载力和综合承载力,同时分析了它们的动态变化过程。研究结果表明,1996年以来乌鲁木齐市的相对自然资源(土地资源和水资源)承载力始终处于超载状态,相对经济资源承载力始终呈富余状态,并且继续攀升。1996年-2004年综合资源承载力处于富余阶段,2004年之后始终处于超载。经济资源对于综合资源承载力的贡献远远大于土地资源和水资源承载力的贡献,经济资源占绝对优势。土地资源的紧缺和水资源的缺乏将成为乌鲁木齐市社会经济可持续发展的重要限制因素,因此,实现人口、资源、环境与经济的相互协调,提高土地资源和水资源承载力以及转变经济增长模式、保持绿色GDP的增长是保证乌鲁木齐市可持续发展的最关键问题。
In this paper, the relative resource carrying capacity of research ideas and calculation methods, the whole country and Xinjiang as a reference area, respectively, calculated in 1996-2008 years of Urumqi, natural and economic resources, the relative carrying capacity and comprehensive carrying capacity, At the same time, the dynamic changes of them are analyzed. The results show that the relative carrying capacity of natural resources (land resources and water resources) in Urumqi has been in an overloaded state since 1996, and the carrying capacity of relative economic resources has always been surplus, and continues to rise. From 1996 to 2004, the comprehensive resource carrying capacity was in an extra stage and remained overloaded after 2004. The contribution of economic resources to the carrying capacity of integrated resources is far greater than the contribution of land resources and water resources carrying capacity, and the economic resources account for the absolute superiority. The shortage of land resources and lack of water resources will become an important limiting factor for the sustainable socio-economic development of Urumqi. Therefore, it is necessary to achieve the coordination among population, resources, environment and economy, increase the carrying capacity of land resources and water resources, and change the mode of economic growth , Maintaining the growth of green GDP is the most crucial issue to ensure the sustainable development of Urumqi.