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能源指的是向自然界提供能量转化的一种物质,它是人类活动的物质基础,是一个国家社会发展和经济增长的重要物质基础,如何保持能源供需稳定和均衡是经济发展的一个重大问题。在当今世界,能源的发展,能源和环境,是全世界、全人类共同关心的问题,也是我国社会经济发展的重要问题。河北省能源消耗总量大,自给率低,能源供需的矛盾已经成为制约河北省经济发展的障碍。准确地预测未来能源消耗对于科学制定能源规划及经济发展战略具有重大意义。本文是基于1980-2012年河北省能源消费量数据,使用Eviews6.0软件,经过分析建立ARIMA(1,2,1)模型,对未来五年河北省的能源消费量进行分析预测。
Energy refers to a substance that provides energy conversion to nature. It is a material basis for human activities and an important material basis for a country’s social development and economic growth. How to maintain the stability and balance of energy supply and demand is a major issue in economic development. In today’s world, the development of energy, energy and the environment are issues of common concern to all people and the world as a whole. It is also an important issue for our social and economic development. Hebei Province has a large total energy consumption and a low self-sufficiency rate. The contradiction between energy supply and demand has become an obstacle to the economic development in Hebei Province. Accurately forecasting future energy consumption is of great significance to the scientific formulation of energy planning and economic development strategies. This article is based on the energy consumption data of Hebei Province from 1980 to 2012, and uses Eviews6.0 software to establish the ARIMA (1,2,1) model to analyze and predict the energy consumption in Hebei Province in the next five years.