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The year 2018 marked the 10th anniversary of the breakout of global financial crisis and represented a turning point in world economic patterns towards major development， transformation and adjustment. Some significant events last year will exert far-reaching influence on world economic trends and the process of globalization in areas such as technology， infrastructure and regulation.
It is particularly noteworthy that the United States is luring or forcing global capital to flow into the country through a policy mix of “monetary policy normalization+ protectionism + high standardization of rules” to strengthen the “unified front” of advanced economies based on new rules. Meanwhile， it is placing a dual pressure of “capital outflow + marginalization of rules” on developing countries. Overall， the present world economy is characterized by increasingly disjointed dynamics， widening gaps， increasing risks of slowdown and accelerated policy adjustments. Facing greater uncertainty and instability， the world economy is expected to maintain weak growth momentum at best.
Advanced economies including the United States suffered a decreased growth rate， which may drag down the world economy in 2019. Additionally， the impact of U.S. protectionism on its economy will further grow in 2019. The IMF forecasted that in 2019， the average growth rate of developed economies would be 2.1 percent， 0.3 percentage points lower than that of 2018， and specifically， the growth rate of the United States would be 2.5 percent， 0.4 percentage points down compared with the previous year.
At the same time， the risk of a downturn in the world economy might increase. For starters， the negative impact of U.S. protectionism will continue to grow. According to the IMF， after an evident drop in 2018， the growth rate of global cargo exports will fall further to 3.76 percent. The U.S. Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates， which might push U.S. monetary policy into a tightening range. In December 2018， the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee predicted that the median federal funds rate for 2019 would reach 2.9 percent， exceeding the long-term neutral rate of 2.8 percent. This means that although the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and shrank the balance sheets， the federal funds rate was still below the long-term neutral rate in the past， which evidenced that monetary policy did not fundamentally change its relaxed situation. But once the federal funds rate goes higher than the long-term neutral rate， the U.S. monetary policy will step into a real tightening situation， giving way to qualitative change of its influence on global liquidity. Additionally， the possibility of large-scale financial risk in emerging economies may rise. With more developing countries suffering from currency devaluation and greater capital outflow， the financial risk in emerging markets is evolving from singular to systematic. A major financial market crash in a few countries may trigger problems in many emerging markets. This possibility should not be ignored.
Considering the slowdown of world economic growth， rising protectionism and unilateralism and faster evolution of global trading rules， China is facing complicated and serious challenges from an external environment undergoing profound changes. In 2019， China will coordinate stabilization of growth， promote reform， adjust structure， improve people’s livelihoods， prevent risk and maintain economic growth at a reasonable range. It will further stabilize employment， finance， foreign trade， foreign capital and investment and boost market confidence as well as increase people’s senses of gains， happiness and security. And the country will maintain the healthy growth of economy and the stability of society， laying a solid foundation for building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and preparing to welcome the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.
It is particularly noteworthy that the United States is luring or forcing global capital to flow into the country through a policy mix of “monetary policy normalization+ protectionism + high standardization of rules” to strengthen the “unified front” of advanced economies based on new rules. Meanwhile， it is placing a dual pressure of “capital outflow + marginalization of rules” on developing countries. Overall， the present world economy is characterized by increasingly disjointed dynamics， widening gaps， increasing risks of slowdown and accelerated policy adjustments. Facing greater uncertainty and instability， the world economy is expected to maintain weak growth momentum at best.
Advanced economies including the United States suffered a decreased growth rate， which may drag down the world economy in 2019. Additionally， the impact of U.S. protectionism on its economy will further grow in 2019. The IMF forecasted that in 2019， the average growth rate of developed economies would be 2.1 percent， 0.3 percentage points lower than that of 2018， and specifically， the growth rate of the United States would be 2.5 percent， 0.4 percentage points down compared with the previous year.
At the same time， the risk of a downturn in the world economy might increase. For starters， the negative impact of U.S. protectionism will continue to grow. According to the IMF， after an evident drop in 2018， the growth rate of global cargo exports will fall further to 3.76 percent. The U.S. Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates， which might push U.S. monetary policy into a tightening range. In December 2018， the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee predicted that the median federal funds rate for 2019 would reach 2.9 percent， exceeding the long-term neutral rate of 2.8 percent. This means that although the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and shrank the balance sheets， the federal funds rate was still below the long-term neutral rate in the past， which evidenced that monetary policy did not fundamentally change its relaxed situation. But once the federal funds rate goes higher than the long-term neutral rate， the U.S. monetary policy will step into a real tightening situation， giving way to qualitative change of its influence on global liquidity. Additionally， the possibility of large-scale financial risk in emerging economies may rise. With more developing countries suffering from currency devaluation and greater capital outflow， the financial risk in emerging markets is evolving from singular to systematic. A major financial market crash in a few countries may trigger problems in many emerging markets. This possibility should not be ignored.
Considering the slowdown of world economic growth， rising protectionism and unilateralism and faster evolution of global trading rules， China is facing complicated and serious challenges from an external environment undergoing profound changes. In 2019， China will coordinate stabilization of growth， promote reform， adjust structure， improve people’s livelihoods， prevent risk and maintain economic growth at a reasonable range. It will further stabilize employment， finance， foreign trade， foreign capital and investment and boost market confidence as well as increase people’s senses of gains， happiness and security. And the country will maintain the healthy growth of economy and the stability of society， laying a solid foundation for building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and preparing to welcome the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.