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近期,中国经济出现一个奇异现象,就是在上半年通货膨胀高达20%的情况下,人民币不仅没有贬值,汇价反而稳中有升,成为人们探讨的经济课题。近一个多月来上海的中国外汇中心牌价,美元兑人民币在1:8.6088-8.6017之间徘徊,比交易中心所定的1:8.700低了几分钱。这意味着,自从外汇中心在4月初运作以来,人民币一直保持稳定,而且稳中有微升。回顾去年下半年,由于中国固定资产投资规模激增,信贷规模扩大,进出口贸易出现了巨额逆差,使通货膨胀大幅上升,形成了人民币汇率将要大幅下跌的心理预期,因此人民币的调节汇率一度下降到11元人民币兑1美元。其后经过整顿金融纪律,提高人民币存款利率,抛售部分外汇吸纳人民
Recently, there was a singular phenomenon in the Chinese economy. When inflation reached as high as 20% in the first half of the year, the renminbi not only failed to devalue, but the exchange rate rose steadily and became an economic issue to be explored. In the past month or so, China’s foreign exchange center in Shanghai has been trading at a discount of 1: 8.6088-8.6017 against the yuan, a few cents below the 1: 8.700 set by the trading center. This means that the renminbi has remained steady and has risen steadily since the exchange center started operation in early April. In the second half of last year, as the scale of China’s fixed asset investment surged and the credit scale expanded, a huge deficit in the import and export trade led to a sharp rise in inflation and a psychological expectation that the RMB exchange rate will fall sharply. As a result, the RMB exchange rate fell to 11 yuan against the dollar. Later, after rectifying financial discipline, raising the interest rate on RMB deposits and selling part of foreign exchange to attract people