论文部分内容阅读
本文通过统计分析,发现西太平洋赤道雨连续3个月出现降水量为正距平,且距平大于200mm时,则未来1—2个月内发生厄尔尼诺(E1 Nino,下同)事件的可能性十分大。由这一相关事实出发,并从动力学进行探讨。初步认为,西太平洋赤道雨是通过降水量连续偏多改变赤道太平洋上空的Walker环流形势,产生Kelvin波,使赤道太平洋表层有热量自西向东传,叠加在赤道东太平洋和秘鲁外海表面的辐射加热场上,从而引发厄尔尼诺事件的出现。
In this paper, the statistical analysis shows that there is a possibility that El Niño (El Nino) will occur within 1-2 months in the future when the equatorial rainfall in the western Pacific presents with positive anomalies for three consecutive months and the anomalies are more than 200 mm Very big. Starting from this related fact, and from dynamics to explore. It is preliminarily believed that the equatorial rain in the western Pacific produces the Kelvin waves by continuously changing the Walker circulation over the equatorial Pacific by the continuous precipitation, and heats the surface of the equatorial Pacific from west to east. Radiation heating superimposed on the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean and the outer surface of Peru The field, which led to the emergence of El Nino events.